Adverse weather hits manufacturing & mining, but boosts utilities Adding to the weaker news on retail sales, manufacturing output declined by 0.5% m/m in January although, as with the former, the unseasonably severe winter temperatures and snow storms in …
15th February 2024
Consumption growth finally faltering The 0.8% m/m fall in retail sales in January might partly reflect the unwinding of a previous weather-related distortion, but should temper recent suggestions of an economic resurgence. We continue to expect GDP growth …
Sales dragged down by vehicle plant shutdowns The 0.7% m/m decline in manufacturing sales values in December was actually a positive outcome, since the more downbeat export data had suggested that the fall would be far bigger than the 0.6% m/m provisional …
Inflation at near-30%, all eyes on CBN Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to 29.9% y/y in January and the latest sharp fall in the naira means that it is likely to reach close to 35% y/y over the coming months. We expect the central bank to …
Plunge in inflation seals the deal on a larger rate cut We’d expected a large fall in Czech inflation in January, but the collapse from 6.9% y/y in December to just 2.3% y/y shows that price pressures are dissipating even more quickly than we’d …
This webpage has been updated with additional analaysis, as well as a chart and table of key data. Inflation to remain low this year and next Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up from a two-year low of 1.5% y/y in December to 1.6% y/y in …
Easing cycle to begin around the middle of the year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but sounded a little more dovish than after previous meetings. With inflation likely to stay low and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. In the mildest of mild recessions, but recovery is in sight The news that the UK slipped into technical recession in 2023, will be a blow for the Prime Minister on a day when he …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication Unemployment rate starts the year with a 4-handle The stronger-than-expected rise in unemployment in January may have been influenced by changes in seasonal employment patterns. …
Economic growth in Singapore remained strong in Q4 but we expect the economy to weaken in the near term as external demand softens and the weakening labour market takes its toll on consumption. According to the final estimate of Q4 GDP published today, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Continued contraction in GDP won’t prevent ending of negative interest rates While the second consecutive contraction in GDP in Q4 would suggest that Japan’s economy is now in …
14th February 2024
Inflation pressures unlikely to prompt another hike The stabilisation in Russian inflation in January, at 7.4% y/y, should provide cover for the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 16.00% at its meeting on Friday, rather than continue the …
The result of Indonesia’s presidential election won’t be officially confirmed for a few days yet, but based on unofficial “quick counts” it looks as though the favourite, Prabowo Subianto, has won over 50% of the vote, thus avoiding the need for a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy to remain weak, strong labour market performance likely to end Data released this morning confirm that the euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we expect this to …
At a standstill at the end of 2023 Q4 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that the region ended last year on a weak note, but the outlook for 2024 looks brighter. While soft external demand is likely to remain a drag on growth over …
Soft surprise supports our view that inflation will fall below 2.0% in April By staying at 4.0% in January rather than rising as widely expected (BoE 4.1%, CE 4.1%, consensus 4.2%), January’s UK CPI inflation figures are better than expected and do not …
Above-target inflation to keep NBR in a hawkish mood The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% again today and, while interest rate cuts are likely to start around mid-year, we think that monetary easing will be less …
13th February 2024
Core CPI boosted by strange-looking acceleration in OER The unexpectedly-strong 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI prices in January will feed the “last mile is the hardest” narrative – with core CPI inflation unchanged at 3.9% – but, other than a very …
Sharp fall in Swiss inflation reinforces our view that rates will be cut in March The large decrease in headline inflation in Switzerland in January means the inflation rate looks sure to undershoot the SNB’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%. Along with the fall in …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Wage growth easing a bit slower While wage growth fell further in December, evidence that the labour market may not be loosening much suggests wage growth may not fall as fast as …
Strong January lending growth not a sign of recovery yet There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase …
12th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. In the context of its continued hawkish communications, we doubt that the drop in headline consumer price inflation in January will be enough to convince the RBI to pivot yet. …
Much ado about nothing The annual revision to the seasonal factors used to generate the seasonally adjusted CPI data turned out to be a damp squib, with the new factors almost identical to the old ones. Nevertheless, since some Fed officials were …
9th February 2024
Wage pressures still too strong Although the sharp rise in employment in January may paint a healthier picture of the labour market than what is under the surface, the Bank of Canada will still be concerned about the renewed decline in the unemployment …
Weakness underlying headline strength There was the usual seasonal surge in net credit in China in January that took new bank lending to a record high. The underlying story is less positive, with loan demand little changed and broader credit growth slower …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further easing in core inflation sets up Q2 rate cut January’s continued fall in core inflation in Norway, and renewed fall in the headline rate, support our view that price …
Households will pinch pennies for a while yet Consumer spending is likely to remain subdued in the near term, helping to ease demand-side pressures on inflation. Experimental data published by the ABS show that household spending rose by 2.4% y/y in …
Rates on hold, Banxico to stay cautious even once easing cycle begins Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next …
8th February 2024
Inflation continues to slow, but looming devaluation will keep it high Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, …
Mexican inflation drops, but Banxico to hold firm later today The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.9% in January means Banxico won’t feel comfortable enough yet to start an easing cycle at the Board meeting later today. Elsewhere, the further …
Governor Karahan committed to tight policy, rate cuts some way off The communications from new Turkish central bank governor Karahan at today’s Inflation Report briefing will have helped to reassure investors that the change at the helm of the central …
RBI not ready to pivot yet The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation to remain above the 4% target for a few more months yet, we doubt the central …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Inflation set to rebound gradually but remain low CPI fell deeper into deflationary territory last month. But this was largely due to the usual volatility in food and tourism …
Economy rebounds strongly following war and sanctions shock Russia’s economy expanded by 3.6% over 2023 as a whole, marking a sharp rebound from a contraction of just 1.2% in 2022 (revised from 2.1%). The activity data for December suggest that the …
7th February 2024
Trade balance back in deficit Net trade appears to have contributed to the likely rebound in GDP last quarter but, with exports falling in December and the survey indicators of external demand still weak, that boost will probably go into reverse this …
Support to growth from surging exports set to fade A sharp rebound in real exports in December helps explain why net external trade supported GDP growth in the fourth quarter but, with the surveys indicating that external demand is weakening fairly …
Rates on hold, March rate cut is in the balance The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in March looks finely balanced. Our current assumption is that …
Mortgage demand continues to recover The average mortgage rate in January was unchanged from the month before, but that didn’t prevent mortgage applications for home purchase rising for a third consecutive month. And with interest rates set to resume …
Large monthly increase confirms bumper start to 2024 The large 1.3% m/m gain in Halifax’s measure of house prices in January was the largest since June 2022, and suggests we are already almost halfway towards our forecast that house prices will rise by 3% …
On hold, cuts likely around mid-2024 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to cut interest rates to support the struggling economy. But with growth set to remain weak and inflationary pressures very subdued, we think the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Industrial recession continues The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Rise in unemployment has further to run Although the unemployment rate last quarter came in below the RBNZ’s expectations, leading indicators continue to point to a rapid …
6th February 2024
Surprise hike, tightening cycle may not be finished yet The Central Bank of Kenya delivered a surprise 50bp interest rate hike today, to 13.0%, suggesting that the MPC’s inflation fears are outweighing signs that exchange rate pressures are easing. With …
Western metros again at risk from announced layoffs Although December’s average job growth rate of 0.3% 3m/3m across our 30 metros signalled a tepid end to 2023, it brings to a close a surprisingly solid year for total employment. The same can’t be said …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Construction PMIs start 2024 in contractionary territory The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 46.8 in December to 48.8 in January was driven by improvements in …
RBA pours cold water on the prospect of early rate cuts Although we're sticking with our view that the RBA is done tightening policy, rate cuts may not be in play until the second half of this year. The RBA’s decision to leave its cash rate on hold at …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further regular wage increases incoming While winter bonus payments increments disappointed in December, regular wage growth accelerated substantially. Looking ahead, we think …
5th February 2024
Services activity apparently gaining momentum Following on the heels of the strong labour market data, the rebound in the ISM services index to a four-month high of 53.4 in January, from 50.5, is another signal that the US economy remains impervious to …
Headline inflation picks up, all eyes on new governor Headline inflation edged up slightly in Turkey to 64.9% y/y in January, and the m/m figure – a 6.7% increase on the back of a large minimum wage hike – looked even worse. The figures highlight the …
The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity likely to remain weak in the coming quarters, and concerns about …
