Russia’s economy expanded by 3.6% over 2023 as a whole, marking a sharp rebound from a contraction of just 1.2% in 2022 (revised from 2.1%). The activity data for December suggest that the economy lost a bit of momentum in Q4 but we still expect growth to remain solid in the coming quarters and our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.0% is firmly above consensus. But we think this will come at the cost of a renewed build-up of imbalances.
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