The universal tariff which Donald Trump has proposed, along with other likely spillovers from his trade policies, may result in a hit to the euro-zone economy of up to half a percent of GDP. The damage would be bigger if this triggered a transatlantic or …
2nd April 2024
The strong showing for the opposition in Turkey’s local elections on Sunday highlights the extent of voter frustration with high inflation and we think that it should be interpreted as a positive for investors by strengthening policymakers’ commitment to …
China’s PMI surveys in March are consistent with some improvement in economic activity and solid commodities demand. We think that government stimulus will continue to boost economic activity in the coming months and in turn support the prices of most …
While the number of “green” jobs in the UK rose strongly in 2022, it’s worth noting that green workers were still outnumbered by estate agents! Market forces are facilitating the transition to a greener workforce, but policies to make the labour market …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on activity from high interest rates continues to fade February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals …
Net lending declines for first time in a year Net lending to commercial property edged back for the first time in a year in February, with declines in both standing and development lending. But the falls were marginal and on a three month average basis …
National data point to fall in euro-zone inflation The fall in CPI inflation in the major German states in March all but confirms that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation will come in lower than expected in March. This will please ECB policymakers, …
Small improvement in CEE, Russia continues to run hot The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. Poland’s PMI inched up from 47.9 in February to 48.0, Czechia’s …
Rising mortgage rates cause house prices to stall The 0.2% m/m fall in the Nationwide house price index in March (consensus: +0.3%, CE: +0.2%) suggested that the rise in mortgage rates since the turn of the year has caused house prices to stall. That …
Slowdown in house price growth has further to run Australian house prices continued to pare their gains last month. And a further loss of momentum appears likely in the near term, especially given that the RBA is unlikely to come to the housing market’s …
Once the Bank of Japan starts to reduce its huge holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in earnest, we think that commercial banks will once again become major holders of JGBs. Insurance firms may lift their holdings a touch further as well, but we …
RBA abandons tightening bias but rate cuts still a long way off While the RBA no longer considered raising interest rates at its March meeting, we think it will take until November for the Bank to start easing monetary policy. The Bank noted that …
The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys remain consistent with weak GDP growth and generally show that inflation expectations are normalising, but the latter are still too high and raise the risk that the Bank will wait to see …
1st April 2024
Above 50.0 for the first time since September 2022 The jump in the ISM manufacturing index in March, leaving it above the theoretical 50.0 no-change level for the first time since September 2022, suggests that the sector has finally turned a corner. While …
The PMIs from Emerging Asia remained weak in March. We think manufacturing sectors across most of Asia will struggle in the near term but activity in Korea and Taiwan is likely to remain strong. The weighted average headline PMI for Emerging Asia rose …
This report was first published on Monday 1 st April covering the official PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the Caixin services and composite PMIs on Wednesday 3 rd April. More signs of a cyclical upturn Sizeable rises in the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tankan points to sluggish recovery The slight fall in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that a rapid recovery from the likely slump in Q1 …
Core prices moderate again, but real spending strong The slightly weaker than expected gain in core PCE prices in February will, at the margin, provide Fed officials with a little more confidence that the January surge was an anomaly. Nevertheless, the …
29th March 2024
Q1 GDP to drop sharply as industrial output slumps With industrial output falling yet again in February following the plunge in January, GDP will fall sharply in the first quarter. The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in February was weaker than …
Click below to visit our Shipping Disruption Dashboard, which we have updated and extended to include analysis of the Baltimore port closure. Explore the dashboard … Shipping Disruption Dashboard: New Charts on …
28th March 2024
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this week is unlikely to have a large impact on global energy flows. For oil, flows of crude and refined products to or from Baltimore are tiny. More coal is exported from Baltimore, but the scale …
Brazil: Copom signals it will tread more cautiously The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week (at which it cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 10.75%, as expected) confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. …
Equities have enjoyed another strong quarter and, while a lot of good news is priced in, we think they can extend their winning streak. Sovereign bonds have, by contrast, struggled over Q1; but we think they have scope to rally, and rate cuts by major …
The US dollar has eked out small gains against some major currencies so far this week, leaving the DXY index just below 105 at the time of writing. During an otherwise quiet week, the February PCE data release out of the US tomorrow may add to the …
Zambia moves closer to full debt restructuring deal Zambia secured an debt restructuring deal with private bondholders this week. It looks like it has the seal of approval from official creditors, paving the way for the country to finally exit default. …
The economy made a strong start to 2024, but that was partly due to the end of strike disruption and the record warm winter. We expect GDP growth to slow sharply next quarter, persuading the Bank of Canada to start its loosening cycle in June. GDP surges …
Confirmation that France’s budget deficit was much higher last year (5.5%) than assumed in the government’s 2024 budget (4.9%) adds to concerns about Europe’s public finances. Indeed, Germany, France and Italy are all likely to be tightening fiscal policy …
China is driving the global renewable rollout… It came as no surprise to see China loom large in the International Renewables Energy Agency’s provisional statistics on renewable energy capacity in 2023. As shown in Chart 1, China added more than twice as …
We expect non-farm payroll growth to ease to 180,000 in March. The jump in the unemployment rate in February is unlikely to be repeated, and is more likely to be partly reversed. We are sceptical that the recent reacceleration in non-farm payroll growth …
Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) …
Hungary shifting down the monetary easing gears The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB), after it slowed its easing cycle on Tuesday , support our view that the pace of rate cuts is set to slow further over the coming months. The …
Everyone knows that one reason why the recession was so small and short is because higher interest rates had a smaller drag on the economy than in the past. But it’s less appreciated that future interest rate cuts may not boost the economy as much either. …
Before Neil Shearing gets on to discussing the key takeaways from our latest Global Economic Outlook, he talks to David Wilder about the inflationary risks stemming from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge at Baltimore’s port. The Capital …
Streets of Baltimore The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, which was hit by an out-of-control container ship this week, could result in a lengthy disruption to the Baltimore port. Nevertheless, since that port is the 15 th largest in the country, …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US will continue to …
Strong growth reduces urgency for interest rate cuts The broad-based strength of GDP growth in January and February means the economy almost certainly outperformed the Bank of Canada’s expectations in the first quarter and reduces the immediate risk of …
CEO visits underscore China’s continued appeal President Xi held a rare, highly-publicised meeting in Beijing with a visiting US business delegation this week. The optimistic take is that, facing economic weakness and collapsing FDI, China’s leadership is …
Egypt policy shift to get final seal of approval Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors but it will not be painless and economic growth will be sluggish this year and next. And there is a lot more work to do to …
February’s money and credit data suggest that the effect of tighter monetary policy has eased slightly. But the data are still very weak and we think that rate cuts later in the year will lead to only a gradual rebound. The narrow (M1) money supply …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Mild recession confirmed, but recovery probably already underway The final Q4 2023 GDP release confirmed that the UK economy was in the mildest of mild technical recessions at …
Inflation risks linger on At first glance, it would appear that much of the data released this week went the way the RBA was hoping. First, we found out that CPI inflation is on track to undershoot the Bank’s expectations this quarter. Second, retail …
BoJ won’t provide much help in supporting yen With the yen hitting a 34-year low of just under 152 against the dollar on Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance’s Masato Kanda noted that the government will respond resolutely to “excessive” yen weakness and …
Singapore’s core inflation not as sticky as it seems Singapore experienced one of the biggest post-pandemic inflation spikes in Asia. Core price pressures even now are among the highest in the region. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Core Inflation (%, y/y) …
External position looks secure Balance of payments data released this week show that India’s current account deficit narrowed from US$11.4bn (1.3% of GDP) in Q3 2023 to US$10.5bn (1.2% of GDP) in Q4. Taking a longer perspective of the four quarters to Q4, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Private consumption set to trudge along The modest uptick in retail sales in February was as we had anticipated. The data confirm our view that consumer spending is likely to …
We think the bulk of the fall in corporate credit spreads is now in the rearview mirror, especially in the US. After falling markedly since November last year , the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of the US ICE BofA Corporate Bond Indices have stabilised …
27th March 2024
Overview – With inflation easing and domestic demand struggling in much of emerging Asia, central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates soon. The one remaining concern for policymakers is the fear of further falls in their currencies. But this …
Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most countries it is now back within central bank …
We expect the spreads between the yield of the 10-year German bund and its ‘riskier’ counterparts in other euro-zone economies to narrow only a little further this year. If anything, we think that the fiscal outlooks in France and Italy mean that the …
