We doubt that the modest fall in mortgage rates we anticipate this year will bring a great deal more stock onto the market. Because of that, the supply of existing homes will remain very tight, so we’re now forecasting a more subdued recovery in existing home sales and raising our 2024 house price forecast from 1.5% y/y to 5% y/y. Tight supply will also mean demand continues to get diverted to the newbuild sector, consistent with our optimistic outlook for new home sales and single-family starts.
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