The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with relatively low tariffs. The actual tariff rate is likely to rise further as import shares normalise, but it probably won’t reach the 17% rate that we have estimated based on 2024 import shares.
In view of wider interest, we are sending this US Economics Update to subscribers of our Global Economics service.
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