The disappointing economic news this week suggests there is some downside risk to our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% q/q in Q3 as fears over tax rises in the Autumn Budget already appear to be weighing on consumer sentiment. That said, the soft outlook for activity bolsters our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates twice more this year (in August and November), from 4.25% now to 3.75%.
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