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RBA to hike again, rate cuts only in Q2 2024

Stronger-than-expected GDP and inflation data should cement the case for the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Given the shifting balance of risks, we think the Bank will wait to see a pronounced slump in output before it loosens policy. Accordingly, we think rate cuts will come on the agenda only in Q2 2024.

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