The decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd from November will fall disproportionately on the Gulf members - Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. This clearly presents a downside risk to our GDP growth forecasts for 2023 and has only added to strains in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US. Elsewhere, comments from IMF and Egyptian government officials this week suggest that an IMF deal could be just around the corner. This should help to restore investor confidence and provide officials with the backing to pursue the policy of a more flexible (and weaker) pound.
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