Last month, we published a Focus outlining why we think the golden era for EM growth has passed and why the emerging world is set for structurally weaker growth. In this Focus, we explain why the same factors will prevent a significant revival in EM exports. Accordingly, while emerging markets would be among the biggest losers from a global shift towards greater trade protectionism, the reality is that even if this is averted, we are entering an era in which EM exports are likely to grow at a slower pace than EM GDP.
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