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OPEC+ conundrum; Indonesia’s nickel dominance

We think OPEC+ members will opt for a short 1-3 month extension in their upcoming decision on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts, as lost market share will be a concern for members. Meanwhile, comments from Indonesian officials that they are comfortable with nickel prices at their current low levels support our view that the wave of new supply will continue.

Looking ahead, in China, policymakers will hold the National People’s Congress (NPC) early next week and, on Thursday, trade data for January and February will be released. We will hold a drop-in on Thursday covering what they mean for China’s commodities demand. We will hold another drop-in later on Thursday to launch our European carbon price coverage. (Clients can register for the drop-ins here.) Finally, the ECB monetary policy decision and US non-farm payrolls on Thursday and Friday will give some indication of the extent of rate cuts this year.

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