Skip to main content

US and China data to steer prices next week

Even though US non-farm payrolls increased by 311,000 in February, the report contained signals that were consistent with slowing inflation, prompting a fall in US interest rate expectations today. Despite this, commodity prices are still broadly down on the week, as Fed Chair Powell’s comments on Tuesday that interest rates are “likely to be higher than previously anticipated” cloud the demand outlook. Powell’s comments led our US Economics team to raise their peak Federal Funds Rate forecast to 5.25%-5.50%.

Next week, US February inflation data will be released on Tuesday. If annual inflation comes in above the economist consensus of 6%, then commodity prices could fall. Our own forecast is in line with consensus. On Wednesday, the release of China’s industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment data for January-February could give prices a lift if they show that the economic recovery there is gathering steam.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access