Looking ahead to OPEC+’s meeting this weekend, the group seems poised to resume increasing its output quotas by 137,000 bpd in April. If geopolitical risk disperses, we think that up to $10pb of the risk premium could fall out of the oil price. As market fundamentals return to the driver’s seat, ample supply should bear down on oil prices this year. Meanwhile, the historic rally in cocoa prices has all but entirely unwound, but several structural headwinds could prevent prices from falling much further.
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