Low OECD commercial oil inventories have so far provided OPEC+ some cover to raise output, but we suspect that a softening in global demand and increases in OPEC+ supply will lead to commercial oil inventories rising strongly. In the absence of China stepping up its strategic purchases of oil, this would be consistent with a steep fall in oil prices between now and the end of next year.
We will be discussing the long-term future of OPEC, as well as the near-term outlook for gold, oil prices, and other commodities, in a Drop-In at 10:00 ET/15:00 BST on Wednesday, 17th September. Register here for the 20-minute online briefing.
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