It was a relatively quiet week on the news front, at least until the US labour data on Friday. The 33,000 drop in non-farm payrolls came as a surprise, even though markets had expected hurricane-related distortions to the data. We think employment will bounce back and that September’s employment data are unlikely to deter the Fed from raising rates again in December.
Turning to next week, the re-opening of Chinese markets after a week-long holiday could lead to some sharp moves in commodity prices. Elsewhere, the release of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting (Wednesday) and CPI data (Friday) could shed some light on the timing of the next US rate rise. China’s September trade data are also due for release on Friday and President Trump is scheduled to rollover the sanctions waiver on Iran later in the week.
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