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Commodities Overview Chart Pack (May 2024)

We think that oil prices have further to fall, as we expect OPEC+ to gradually increase output later this year. Prices have recently fallen as worries that the conflict in the Middle East could affect oil supply have eased. Natural gas prices in the US should increase later this year due to faltering production and greater LNG exports. Meanwhile, gas prices in Europe and Asia should retreat from their recent peaks. Lower gas prices will weigh on coal prices.

The recent rally in industrial metals prices seems stretched and we expect prices to fall by the end of the year. Similarly, we expect gold prices to fall back from record highs as props to prices fade. Finally, we expect many soft agricultural prices to fall back further as tight supply conditions ease.

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