The chances of a trade deal between the US and China, similar to the Phase One deal of Trump's first term, appear to be rising. In this note, first published in February, we examined what China could offer to buy. A key conclusion is that China could significantly ramp up imports from the US in areas like energy, agricultural goods and (if the US allowed it) technology. But we doubt that any agreement would provide the basis for a lasting improvement in bilateral relations, any more than the Phase One deal did.
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