The tepid rise in retail sales in February all but locks in a contraction in sales volumes in Q1. We think that a stronger rise in services spending will help keep private consumption buoyant this quarter. Nonetheless, there is a significant risk that the RBA decides to pause its tightening cycle next week in response to the weak retail sales data.
Asia Drop-In (30th Mar.): Our monthly briefing on the big regional stories is all about the recent banking turmoil, including the potential macro fallout but also where the risks lie on Asian bank balance sheets. Register now.
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