What would ‘deglobalisation’ mean for asset allocation?

Globalisation has probably peaked and could be partly reversed as a result of technological change and protectionist policies. This would have significant implications for asset markets, which have generally benefitted from increased economic and financial integration over recent decades. In most scenarios, we think that asset returns would be lower over the next decade compared to the previous three.
Jonas Goltermann Senior Markets Economist
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Asset Allocation Update

How Evergrande fits into our asset allocation outlook

You don’t have to believe that Evergrande’s troubles are the start of a financial crisis in China to think that the risky assets most sensitive to developments there will struggle in the next few years. Even an orderly restructuring of the developer, plus policymakers quickly doing enough to limit distress across the financial system – still the most likely outcome in our view – would probably not prevent much more weakness in construction activity. And in the meantime, other, unrelated, headwinds seem to be building.

23 September 2021

Asset Allocation Chart Book

Developments in China shake up the outlook

Three key developments in China over the past month or so are worth highlighting, as they feed into our broader asset allocation forecasts for the next couple of years. First, what started as a regulatory crackdown on a handful of sectors seems to have morphed into a broader ideological campaign, with major implications for a wide range of Chinese companies. Second, distressed property developer Evergrande has slid further towards default, heightening concerns about the country’s construction sector in particular, and its financial system more generally. Third, China’s economy generally has shown further signs of slowing.

16 September 2021

Asset Allocation Update

Putting risky asset valuations into context

This Update compares the valuations of the twelve different “risky” asset classes that we cover on our Asset Allocation service, both relative to one another and to the yields of “safe” assets, as well as explaining how those valuations inform our long-term returns forecasts.

13 September 2021

More from Jonas Goltermann

FX Markets Update

What to make of the commodity currency divergence

Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may provide some buffer.

1 June 2021

Capital Daily

We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last

While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar.

1 June 2021

FX Markets Focus

A primer on our new FX Markets service

The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new FX Markets service, which we launched in May 2021. It is split into three sections. The first provides an overview of the new service. The second explains our approach to forecasting currencies. The third goes through some of the key tools that we use to monitor currency markets and inform our forecasts.

27 May 2021
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