Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2025) The Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged today, judging that the recent deterioration in the economy does not require a policy response. We think that the economy is likely to recover in the coming... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2025) Growth slowed significantly in Switzerland in the second quarter as tariff front-running eased. The economy is likely to expand only slowly the next couple of quarters as high US tariffs and elevated... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response GDP second estimate, Employment (Q2) and IP (June) Data released today confirm that the euro-zone economy expanded at only a modest pace in Q2 and that the labour market is cooling. We are forecasting a temporary pick-up in growth next year as a... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) The sharp drop in German industrial production in June and the big downward revision to the figures for May mean that, rather than holding up well in the face of tariffs as the data previously... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (July) The increase in Sweden’s CPIF inflation rate to its highest level since the start of 2024 is likely to encourage the Riksbank’s officials to keep the policy rate on hold at their meeting later this... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2025) Euro-zone retail sales edged up in June but remained slightly below the peak reached early in the pandemic and well below the pre-pandemic trend. Looking forward, we expect spending growth to remain... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2025) Headline inflation remained at the target in July and core inflation was only a touch higher. Both were broadly in line with the ECB’s forecasts. So there was little in the data to suggest that the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2025) & ESI (July 2025) The slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 came as no surprise as the boost from tariff front-running waned. We expect growth to remain weak in the second half of the year . 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q2 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP growth slowed from 0.6% q/q in Q1 to either 0.1% or 0.0% in Q2, in part due to the reversal of tariff front-running. (Our projection was 0.2%... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (July 2025) The Ifo survey for July confirms that the German economy has been resilient to tariffs so far but that underlying growth remains weak. With tariffs likely to weigh on activity even if a EU-US deal is... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. While we are currently forecasting one more 25bp rate... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2025) July’s Composite PMI for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy doing little more than stagnate. But policymakers at the ECB will be encouraged by the evidence that services price pressures are... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Reports of EU-US trade deal Media reports suggest that the EU and US are approaching an agreement which would see a baseline tariff of 15% covering most products including vehicles. If confirmed (and of course President Trump... 23rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The increase in euro-zone industrial production in May confirms that the sector has been resilient to US tariffs so far and that may remain the case in the near term if, as we expect, Trump’s threat... 15th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (June) Both headline and core inflation rose in June by much more than Riksbank officials had forecast at its meeting last month, supporting our view that the Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 2% for the... 7th July 2025 · 1 min read
