Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (April 2026) While the ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today was expected and the monetary policy statement gives little away, the chances of rate hikes later this year appear to be... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2026) & HICP (April 2026) The euro-zone economy lost a little pace even before the Iran war began , and the business surveys point to stagnation at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the pick-up in inflation in April reflected higher... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response National GDP (Q1 2026) National data released so far suggest that GDP growth in the euro-zone probably slowed to 0.1% q/q (data due at 10.00am BST). Excluding Ireland, GDP is likely to have risen by 0.2%, which is a... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German State CPI (April 2026) April’s EC survey suggests the Iran war may hit euro-zone activity a bit harder than we are forecasting. Services firms’ selling price expectations rose further but not enough for the ECB to take... 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April) The sharp fall in the PMI activity indices in April suggests at face value that the Iran conflict may have more of chilling effect on activity than we have been assuming, while the increases in the... 23rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (April) After a big drop in March, euro-zone consumer confidence fell again in April and reached its lowest level since late 2022, at a time when household consumption was declining. For now we suspect that... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (February) Data released today underline that Germany’s manufacturing sector was subdued even before the Iran conflict. We expect it to remain weak this year, though it is not likely to suffer anything like the... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (March) The jump in headline inflation in March was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about what will happen to food or core inflation in the coming months. In our baseline... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (March 2026) March’s EC survey suggests that the jump in energy prices has had a very limited impact on activity so far, while services firms’ selling price expectations are little changed. 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2026) The fall in the German Ifo BCI and the Composite PMI in March suggest that the renewed rise in energy prices could derail the tentative recovery in the German economy seen in recent months. We expect... 25th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2026) March’s euro-zone PMI survey shows that higher energy costs are weighing on demand and causing input prices to rise rapidly. 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2026) The ECB’s press release and updated forecasts suggest that policymakers think that the inflationary effects of higher energy prices will outweigh the disinflationary effects of weaker economic growth... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response SNB Monetary Policy decision (March 2026) The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and nudged up its inflation forecast trivially. Otherwise, its commentary underlines the Bank’s willingness to intervene to limit upward pressure... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (January) The falls in German industrial production in January and December erased most of the recovery seen in the previous months and left output close to its post-pandemic low. With the current spike in... 9th March 2026 · 2 mins read
