Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (April) German industrial production and export figures for April suggest that the boost to activity from US tariff front running is already reversing and that underlying industrial activity remains weak... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (June 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% and give no clear signals about the future path of monetary policy was in line with expectations. We forecast one more rate cut in the second... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Ireland GDP (Q1 2025) We think that the huge upward revision to Ireland’s Q1 GDP data this morning, to show a rapid expansion that was in large part driven by tariff front-running, will lead to euro-zone growth being... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (May 2025) May’s steep decline in services inflation, to its lowest level in more than three years, confirms that the previous month’s jump was just an Easter-related blip and that the downward trend in services... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May 2025) May’s euro-zone business and consumer survey from the European Commission shows a small improvement in sentiment, but the data are still consistent with the economy struggling. And the price... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Trump threat of 50% tariffs President Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff from 1 st June may well turn out to be a negotiating tactic and seems very unlikely to be where tariffs settle over the long run. But if it were implemented it... 23rd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 2025) The euro-zone’s flash PMIs for May suggest that manufacturing output continues to be supported by the front-running of US tariffs. But the bigger picture is that the services sector weakened... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd estimate) and Employment (Q1 2025) 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q1 2025) Switzerland’s GDP growth shocked to the upside in the first quarter and grew by 0.7% q/q, shaking off concerns that trade uncertainty would weigh on the economy. This means the SNB is more likely to... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (May 2025) While the Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% today, policymakers indicated that a rate cut is likely this year given the weakness of the economy. We now think that they are likely to cut... 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (March) The big rise in German industrial output and orders in March confirms that conditions in the sector have stabilised in recent months. However, some of the strength might be due to tariff front running... 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (March 2025) Euro-zone retail sales declined in March, reversing part of the increase in February. We expect spending growth to remain weak for the rest of the year as any support from lower interest rates is... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) Sweden’s CPIF inflation was unchanged in April which will give the Riksbank little cause for concern going into its policy decision tomorrow. We expect it to keep the policy rate at 2.25%. 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (April 2025) April’s rise in services inflation is unlikely to worry the ECB too much as it was probably driven mainly by Easter timing effects. We think services inflation will start falling again in the coming... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
