Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (June) Both headline and core inflation rose in June by much more than Riksbank officials had forecast at its meeting last month, supporting our view that the Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 2% for the... 7th July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The better-than-expected German industrial production figures for May are partly due to continued tariff front-running in the pharmaceuticals sector, but output in other sectors is also proving more... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Headline inflation rose slightly in Switzerland in June, but we expect it will remain around zero, or just below, for the rest of the year. Persistently weak inflation is likely to encourage the SNB... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain Flash HICP (June) National data published so far suggest that both euro-zone headline and core inflation were little changed and close to 2% in June. That will please ECB officials, who we expect to cut rates one more... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (June 2025) The ESI for June suggests that US tariffs may be starting to drag on euro-zone activity and that the economy remains weak. Meanwhile, Middle-east tensions do not appear to have raised perceived... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2025) The rise in the Ifo BCI in June suggests that activity in Germany has not yet been meaningfully hit by US tariffs. But output remains weak and we think a proper recovery will only materialise next... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2025) June’s flash PMI survey for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy flat-lining. The recent jump in energy costs has not yet fed through to output prices, but the uncertainty created by the... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June 2025) The SNB decision to cut by just 25bp today means that it has avoided negative rates for the time being. But we think that continued deflation over the coming months will prompt policymakers to cut... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2025) While the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp this morning and suggested there was a reasonable chance of a further cut this year, the outlook is uncertain and underlying economic conditions aren’t... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (April) German industrial production and export figures for April suggest that the boost to activity from US tariff front running is already reversing and that underlying industrial activity remains weak... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (June 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% and give no clear signals about the future path of monetary policy was in line with expectations. We forecast one more rate cut in the second... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Ireland GDP (Q1 2025) We think that the huge upward revision to Ireland’s Q1 GDP data this morning, to show a rapid expansion that was in large part driven by tariff front-running, will lead to euro-zone growth being... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (May 2025) May’s steep decline in services inflation, to its lowest level in more than three years, confirms that the previous month’s jump was just an Easter-related blip and that the downward trend in services... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
