Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Official public finances data for 2010 confirmed that while the core economies are making clear progress to rein in their budget deficits, the periphery’s fiscal problems are far from over. 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeping its options open Having raised interest rates from 1.0% to 1.25% as expected, the ECB kept its options open over the likely size and timing of future interest rate increases. For now, we still think that the Bank will... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal succumbs. Now what? Now that Portugal has succumbed to the inevitable, the key question is whether the latest euro-zone bail-out finally draws a line under the peripheral economies’ problems or marks the start of a new... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will higher rates do to the euro-zone? We doubt that the probable ECB interest rate hike on Thursday marks the start of an aggressive policy tightening. But if interest rates were to rise in line with market expectations, their impact... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Portugal yet escape a bail-out? Despite the surge in Portuguese government bond yields, politicians continue to insist that they will not require a bail-out. But these words can quickly be taken over by events. A quick look at... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banks a heavy weight around Ireland's neck The results of the latest round of Irish bank stress tests will almost undoubtedly make pretty grim reading and we doubt that they will draw a line under the banking crisis. Accordingly, concerns... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Public finances data for February revealed a familiar picture, with Spain leading the way with respect to its fiscal tightening plans while Greece continued to lag behind. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why are default concerns not hitting the euro? Increased concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone countries may default on their debts have so far had remarkably little impact on the value of the euro. But there are reasons why the currency... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data confirm that underlying inflationary pressures remain reasonably subdued. While the ECB appears intent on raising interest rates next month, the money data... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s problems worsen The recent surge in government bond yields, coupled with ongoing concerns about the banking sector and prospects for economic growth, suggest that Ireland may need to gain a bigger bail-out package... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bail-out now even more likely The fall of Portugal’s Government makes it even more likely that the country will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting a bail-out. But it may also add to the growing concerns over the prospect of... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New European bank stress tests still not stressful enough Details on the methodology and assumptions behind this year’s European bank stress tests provide little hope that the results will significantly ease concerns about the region’s banks. This supports... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB interest rate hike not around the corner Despite growing domestic price pressures, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target at 0.25% at today’s meeting. While the Bank’s tone was a bit more upbeat than expected, the inflation... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB interest rate hike not around the corner Despite growing domestic price pressures, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target at 0.25% at today’s meeting. While the Bank’s tone was a bit more upbeat than expected, the inflation... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the "Euro Pact" mean for Portugal? Contrary to prior expectations, Portugal was not pushed into accepting a bail-out at this weekend’s euro-zone summit. Instead, the “Euro Pact” and Portugal’s announcement of new fiscal measures eased... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the "Grand Bargain" prove to be a turning point? Measures announced by European leaders late last Friday to try to resolve the region’s fiscal problems have provided the markets with a boost. But the measures are not as far-reaching as had been... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
