Europe Economics Update Have we underestimated Germany? The recent rise in some of the German business surveys has prompted optimistic media reports about Germany saving the euro-zone, acting as Santa, being a twinkling Christmas star in the euro-zone... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank cuts rates and more likely to come The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is a timely reminder that even the strongest performing European economies are not immune from the effects of the euro-zone debt crisis. We... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank cuts rates and more likely to come The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is a timely reminder that even the strongest performing European economies are not immune from the effects of the euro-zone debt crisis. We... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of a French downgrade The immediate, mechanical effect of a French credit rating downgrade might not be too severe as it has already been at least partly priced in by financial markets. But it could have disastrous... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB doing more than we think? Recent changes to the ECB’s bank lending operations and the news that national central banks may lend to the IMF have raised hopes that support for the region’s most troubled economies is being... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB shatters hopes of a "silver bullet" While the ECB met expectations of a further cut in interest rates and greater support for banks today, it shattered hopes that it is about to fire a silver bullet into the heart of the debt crisis. 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Markets’ euro optimism to prove short-lived again It is not hard to see why the financial markets have responded positively to the latest proposals to save the euro: they seem to open the door to immediate financial help from the ECB and provide a... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian prospects remain grim Recent euro-zone developments may have brought Italy back from the brink again. But Italy will still need years of financial assistance from the rest of the region and to go through years of severe... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro break-up will leave no country unscathed We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) The latest fiscal data suggest that Ireland remains on track to meet its budget deficit target for this year. But the near-term outlook for the public finances in Southern Europe is more downbeat. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest monetary data have revealed rising strains in the banking sector as the euro-zone’s debt crisis has deepened. While the ECB has continued to provide banks with liquidity, it has stopped... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are euro bonds the answer? Jointly issued euro-zone bonds might represent the move into full-blown fiscal union that could be needed to preserve the single currency area in the long run. But opposition from Germany suggests... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets starting to price in a euro break-up? Financial markets seem finally to have started to accept that the euro-zone might actually break up. Regular readers will not be surprised to hear that we think this process has considerably further... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the new Spanish Government steady the ship? Although Spain is in a rather better position than its Southern European counterparts, the next Government still faces huge challenges and is unlikely to overcome them without outside help. 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is France falling out of the core? Growing concerns about France threaten to take the euro-zone crisis to a new level. If a further rise in bond yields or large bank losses leave France unable to support the periphery, the burden on... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to fire the silver bullet The idea that the European Central Bank (ECB) will fire a “silver bullet” into the euro-zone crisis by printing vast amounts of money to prop up the Italian bond market looks optimistic. Not only is... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
