Europe Economics Update Greece still in a "debt trap" Greece’s bail-out reduces the risk of an imminent default, but a closer look at the economic and fiscal projections that the package is based on adds to evidence that the deal is a fudge. The only way... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek rescue deal has shallow foundations The new rescue deal for Greece should buy the euro-zone a bit of time. But we think that the package is based on unrealistic economic assumptions and will be no more successful than the first deal... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Worse to come for Spain Recent economic indicators from Spain suggest that it is currently faring rather better than the other troubled southern euro-zone economies. But Spain’s economic fundamentals look grim. We expect the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last The Swedish Riksbank indicated that it expects its latest 25 basis point interest rate cut to be the last in the cycle. But we expect the adverse knock-on effects from an intensification of the euro... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Walking away from Greece would be a big gamble The direct economic and financial ramifications of a disorderly Greek default may not be very much worse than those of the planned “voluntary” debt restructuring. But the broader implications for the... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last The Swedish Riksbank indicated that it expects its latest 25 basis point interest rate cut to be the last in the cycle. But we expect the adverse knock-on effects from an intensification of the euro... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a second Portuguese bail-out involve PSI? Portugal has made some progress in reining in its huge budget deficit, but it appears inevitable that it will need another rescue package. While there is a good chance that any new deal will not be... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB focuses on credit crunch dangers The ECB today approved further measures to address the danger of a credit crunch in the euro-zone. However, it continues to resist taking more direct action to tackle the region’s fiscal crisis. 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity deal won’t mark a turning point for Greece Greek policymakers may soon agree on a new austerity and structural reform programme, reducing the chances of a disorderly default in March. Nonetheless, any deal is unlikely to prevent Greece’s... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that most of the southern European economies are still struggling to make further major inroads into their budget deficits. With growth likely to weaken further in the... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Recent monetary data have revealed that the ECB’s generous lending has helped to reduce strains in interbank markets to some extent. However, money and credit growth have weakened further. 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt deal will not end Greece’s problems Media reports suggest that Greece may be on the brink of agreeing a debt restructuring deal with private sector creditors. But while this might reduce the chance of a near-term disorderly default... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stands firm on bond purchases The ECB today maintained both the level of official interest rates and its opposition to calls for it to take more decisive action to tackle the euro-zone’s debt crisis. 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel/Sarkozy summit adds to break-up risk Merkel and Sarkozy’s pledge to accelerate their contributions to the euro-zone’s bail-out fund following today’s summit was vaguely encouraging. But far more striking was their lukewarm support for... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) The latest fiscal data add to evidence that the ongoing austerity programmes in Southern Europe have failed to narrow these economies’ budget deficits as quickly as expected. 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Recent monetary data have revealed that money and credit growth remain very subdued. The ECB’s latest efforts to improve commercial banks’ liquidity seem unlikely to have a meaningful impact on... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
