US Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate... 10th October 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) We doubt the small fall in Nationwide house prices in August was the start of a renewed downturn. Surveys suggest the recent declines in mortgage rates have led to an increase in housing demand, while... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jul. 24) Net lending to commercial property was positive for the fourth consecutive month in July, albeit by a smaller £520mn. With development lending still negative, this was driven entirely by a rise in... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate... 20th August 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jun. 24) Net lending to property increased for the third month in a row in June, and the rise of £1.31bn was the largest since the end of 2021. In line with last month the gain was entirely due to a rise in... 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lending surveys point to weak recovery in transactions Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distress rising, but still a long way to go With the share of non-performing CMBS loans on the rise, and plenty of loans set to refinance onto a higher rate this year, recent data provide further evidence that distress will rise both this year... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that... 16th July 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sweden REIT distress unlikely to derail recovery The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (June 2024) The decline in mortgage rates back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase to rise by 5.1% m/m in June. That gain was tiny in the context of the ongoing three-year slump in... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (May 2024) The decline in mortgage rates in May was not enough to stop home purchase mortgage applications from falling to a three-month low. The chances of a quick turnaround in June currently look slim, as the... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read