US Housing Market Outlook US Housing Outlook: Market in need of rate relief that is not coming President Trump’s inflationary trade and immigration policies leave no clear path to the lower borrowing costs that the housing market desperately needs. A tariff-driven resurgence in inflation will... 2nd May 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Risk of CRE debt distress greater in the EZ than the UK A stabilisation in capital values and decline in interest rates have sparked optimism that we may be past the worst of the real estate debt refinancing challenge. That indeed looks to be the case in... 6th February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 24) 30th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q4 Index - Gap between US CRE appraisals and sales prices to close in 2025 The Q4 data suggest that appraisals are lagging the market correction, with transaction-based cap rates still significantly above those reported in the indices. Our expectation that this gap closes in... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales slump to drag into 2025 The potentially inflationary policy mix of the incoming Trump administration will limit the decline in mortgage rates this year, squashing hopes for a major recovery in home sales. We expect... 8th January 2025 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2025 Though we think the market has bottomed, we expect a very weak recovery this year, unlike in other cycles. In fact, we think valuation falls still have further to go, leaving our forecasts generally... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The sharp rise in transactions in October and the acceleration in house price growth in November suggest some relief rally or pent-up demand after the Budget is more than offsetting the recent rises... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update No holiday cheer for CRE debt Our expectation of rising evidence of distressed assets in 2024 has come to bear, but we think more is still to come over the next couple of years. Some of that will stem from matured loans requiring... 5th December 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still... 20th November 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Sep. 24) Net lending to property totalled £1.33bn in September, essentially unchanged from the previous month. 29th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update ‘Extend and pretend’ still ongoing for some banks The NCREIF Q3 index posted a positive return for the first time in two years, with only offices recording a negative outturn. But with firmer evidence that poorly capitalized banks have been less... 28th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate... 10th October 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) We doubt the small fall in Nationwide house prices in August was the start of a renewed downturn. Surveys suggest the recent declines in mortgage rates have led to an increase in housing demand, while... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jul. 24) Net lending to commercial property was positive for the fourth consecutive month in July, albeit by a smaller £520mn. With development lending still negative, this was driven entirely by a rise in... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
