US Commercial Property Outlook

Retail shines in a disappointing recovery

Below-trend economic growth and high interest rates will continue to weigh on all-property total returns, which we think will average just 5.5% p.a. over 2026-30. Of the major sectors, we think retail...

4th December 2025 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Nov. 25)

The headline CIPS construction PMI fell for the second consecutive month to a new post-pandemic low of 39.4 in November. The drop was broad-based across the sectors, with the housing balance seeing a...

4th December 2025 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to UK commercial property (Oct. 25)

At £1.47bn, net lending to commercial property softened again in October, from the £1.65bn recorded in September. That pushed the three-month total down to £5.7bn, the lowest level since June.

1st December 2025 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack Q4 2025

All-property capital values were flat in Q3 and our CE Capital Value Lead Indicator suggests more of the same in Q4 and into early 2026. Lagging appraisal adjustments and still-high financing costs...

20th November 2025 · 0 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Key client questions from our commercial property in 2026 roundtables

Recently we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for commercial real estate in 2026 and beyond. This note shares our answers to some of the most...

18th November 2025 · 6 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

US Commercial Property Lending (Oct.)

17th November 2025 · 1 min read

APAC Commercial Property Update

RICS data shows APAC CRE sentiment still subdued in Q3

The latest RICS Commercial Property Sentiment Index for Asia-Pacific remained in negative territory in Q3, reaffirming our view that the recovery in this cycle will be weak. Mainland China and Hong...

31st October 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to UK commercial property (Sep. 25)

Net lending to commercial property dropped to £1.65bn in September, from £2.60bn in August. That helped bring the three-month total down to £6.2bn, the first decline on that measure since March.

29th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

CRE NPLs in Germany now highest in the EU and more on the way

The notable rise in the share of non-performing loans to commercial real estate in Germany over the past couple of years stands out within the EU. We expect further increases to come in Germany, but...

14th October 2025 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

US Commercial Real Estate Lending (Sep.)

Net lending by banks to commercial real estate reached $4.1bn in September, its weakest monthly outturn since April. That was below the monthly average of $4.7bn for the year-to-date and less than...

13th October 2025 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have multifamily and industrial delinquency rates diverged?

The CMBS delinquency rate for multifamily was the second highest in August, largely reflecting relatively loose lending practices around the turn of the decade which has led to an outsized impact from...

1st October 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to UK commercial property (Aug. 25)

Net lending to property reached its highest monthly level since May 2020, reflecting a high volume of refinancing activity rather than an especially strong rise in originations for new purchases.

29th September 2025 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Update

UK mortgage arrears may not have peaked just yet

The weak labour market means it’s too soon to conclude that the share of mortgages in arrears won’t rise further, although it will remain low relative to past standards.

10th September 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to UK commercial property (Jul. 25)

Net lending to property was strong again in July, reaching £1.8bn. While this was a slightly lower outturn than June, it nevertheless drove an acceleration in the three-month total, which hit £6.0bn...

1st September 2025 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025)

All-property capital values rose modestly by 0.1% in Q2, suggesting a market floor, with cap rates falling by 5 bps. However, we expect values to see limited upside due to the narrow spread to risk...

22nd August 2025 · 1 min read