UK Housing Market Update Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will... 19th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Answering questions from our debt distress Drop-In This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page. This Update... 16th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Offices still the most likely source of distress While we expect the office and multifamily sectors to account for the lion’s share of distressed assets over the next couple of years, there is an important distinction between the two. Unlike... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Later rate cuts are the biggest risk to the recovery Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (January) There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase since... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How big a threat is debt distress in Europe? Falling interest rates will not prevent a rise in refinancing distress in Europe in the coming years – debt funding gaps will be large and forced selling will increase. However, financing pressures... 7th February 2024 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jan. 2024) The average mortgage rate in January was unchanged from the month before, but that didn’t prevent mortgage applications for home purchase rising for a third consecutive month. And with interest rates... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distressing state of affairs for some multifamily investors Recent headlines have drawn attention to the immediate risks facing multifamily investors and lenders. While we think this concern is appropriate, we think the biggest risks face assets financed at... 5th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Dec. 2023) December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some support to our view that the economic recovery... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Questions from our latest US housing drop-in We held a 20-minute online briefing this week to discuss our new forecast for the US housing market in 2024. You can watch the recording of the “drop-in” here. This Update recaps our answers to the... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we see more distress coming in 2024 We expect evidence of distress to ramp up this year as loan extensions end. Many borrowers will be forced to either inject new capital, return assets to lenders or sell into a soft market. Those... 22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jan 2024) If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023) The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
