Q2 Economic and Market Outlooks

Our quarterly Outlook reports are in-depth guides to our latest views and updated forecasts from across our economic and markets services. We’ll be posting our Q2 2022 reports below, as they are published. 

New: CE Interactive’s Country Dashboards provide direct access to the data and charts that underlie these reports.

If you have questions about accessing any of this research, please contact us at sales@capitaleconomics.com

Global Services

Global Economics: Paying the price of high inflation
Our flagship quarterly report explains why we’re even more below consensus on global growth with inflation higher than most expect – and why rates will rise further than anticipated.

Global Markets: Further pain may still be in store for global markets
Why we think the rise in yields and fall in equities could continue.

Emerging Markets: Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges
Against a backdrop of Chinese lockdowns and the war in Ukraine, EM growth this year is likely to be weaker than most expect.

Developed Markets

US: Economy will bend not break under higher rates
Aggressive tightening, including 50bps rate hikes, will weigh on growth but is unlikely to push the US economy into recession.

Euro-zone: A year of stagflation
We’re much more negative than the consensus, forecasting six months of no growth while energy prices keep inflation elevated.

Japan: BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat
2% inflation won’t prompt rate hikes, but the Bank of Japan could be forced to let go of trying to control long-term rates.

UK: Rates to rise to 3.00% to rein in price expectations
How inflation will be higher, growth lower and interest rates will rise more than most expect.

Nordic & Swiss: Under pressure from weaker euro-zone growth
The Nordic and Swiss economies are less vulnerable to the impact of high energy prices, but exposure to the euro-zone will weigh on some of these.

Canada: Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential
A strong year for the economy will give way to relatively weak growth in 2023 on the back of aggressive Bank of Canada actions to tackle inflation.

Australia & New Zealand: RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate
Our above-consensus view on Australian inflation informs our view that rates will rise by more than most expect.

Emerging Markets

China: No quick fix this time
The Chinese economy faces a more muted recovery than the one following the initial COVID lockdown as policy support is less generous and exporters face reduced demand.

Emerging Asia: New headwinds emerge
Higher commodity prices and weaker global demand is set to weigh on economic recoveries.

Latin America: High commodity prices won’t lift all boats
The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all LatAm economies will benefit.

Emerging Europe: Recession risks take centre stage
The war in Ukraine and Russia’s economic collapse this year will cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region. Inflation and interest rates will end the year higher than most expect.

India: Inflation will force the RBI’s hand
Despite high commodity prices, we’re above consensus on growth. We also think the RBI will hike by more than most expect.

Commodities

Commodities Overview: affordability worsens
We’ve revised up our forecasts for most commodities as a result of the war in Ukraine.

Property

US Housing: Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens
The surge in mortgage rates won’t be enough to trigger a correction but will cool sales and prices.