We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs, labour markets conditions should stay firm and there is scope for households to reduce savings to support spending. Inflation will rise a bit further in our base case before falling back in 2027. Most central banks will tighten policy but by less than is currently priced into markets. Our forecasts are predicated on a view that global energy prices will remain around their current levels until the end of this year before falling back in 2027. A more prolonged rise in prices would weaken the global outlook but we think it would require a much sharper increase to cause a global recession. Risks around the AI buildout are also mounting. We expect AI investment to remain strong in the first half of 2027 before slowing in the second half. But there is a risk that the turn in the AI capex cycle (and stock market correction) that we are forecasting comes sooner than we anticipate.