UK Housing
This service provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the UK housing market, with a particular emphasis on how developments in the economy alter the prospects for housing.
This service is relevant to all those professionals engaged in the UK housing market, including developers, investors, mortgage lenders, together with all agents and financial advisers working in the industry.
The subscription to this service includes 2-3 emailed publications a week, access to our online research archive and our economists, and the opportunity to attend our conferences, forums and webinars.
- Timely, clear and concise research.
- Unique, independent forecasts.
- Rapid responses, concise summations and detailed analysis.
Read our latest UK Housing Market Outlook
While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook, we are sticking to our forecast that house prices will fall by 12% in total.
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Key Forecasts
|
Main Economic & Housing Market Forecasts |
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|
Q4 2023 |
Q1 2024 |
Q2 2024 |
Q3 2024 |
Q4 2024 |
Q4 2025 |
Q4 2026 |
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|
Bank Rate (%) |
5.25 |
5.25 |
5.00 |
4.50 |
4.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
|
|
Mortgage Interest Rate (%) |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
|
|
Nationwide House Prices (% y/y) |
-2.3 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
5.0 |
3.2 |
|
|
Completed Transactions (000s) |
245 |
255 |
265 |
265 |
280 |
300 |
300 |
|
|
Mortgage Approvals – For House Purchase (000s) |
150 |
165 |
165 |
170 |
180 |
200 |
200 |
|
|
Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv |
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All Coverage
Featured Economists
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Andrew Burrell
Chief Property Economist
Andrew Burrell joined Capital Economics in 2018 as the Chief Property Economist. Prior to this he was the EMEA Head of Economics and Forecasting at JLL, working closely with European property investors. A decade in real estate was preceded by over 15 years as a professional economist at Experian, the Bank of England, RBS and the London Business School. He is an active member of both SPR and IPF.
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Andrew Wishart
Senior Property Economist
Andrew Wishart runs our UK Housing service. Having joined Capital Economics via the graduate scheme in 2015, Andrew spent three years working on the UK Economics service before joining the property team to cover the UK housing market. Prior to joining Capital Economics, Andrew worked in the Macroeconomic Analysis team at HM Treasury covering GDP and inflation. Andrew holds a Master’s degree in Economic History from the London School of Economics and an undergraduate degree in Economics from the University of Surrey
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Imogen Pattison
Assistant Economist
Imogen joined Capital Economics in January 2023 as an Assistant Economist on our Property team covering the UK housing and European Commercial Property services. Imogen holds an MSc in Economics from Durham University and a BSc in Economics with Econometrics from Goldsmiths, University of London.