Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.)

New home sales edged higher in April, after recording their largest month-on-month slump in over six years during March. The latest rise was in line with recent improvements in mortgage applications, but given virus-related restrictions, it was still well above market expectations. Despite this, we expect new home sales will not recover their pre-virus levels by the end of 2020.
Andrew Burrell Chief Property Economist
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US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Nov.)

A rise in mortgage rates to an eight-month high of 3.31% by the end of November failed to dampen home purchase demand, which surged to a nine-month high. The drop in 10-year Treasury yields from the arrival of the Omicron variant implies mortgage rates will fall back over the next couple of weeks, which may provide some further support to demand. But with affordability stretched we doubt the current level of home purchase applications can be sustained beyond the next few weeks.

1 December 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep.)

Annual house price growth fell for the first time in 16-months in September, and stretched affordability means it should continue to slow. It is too soon to say what impact the arrival of the Omicron variant will have on the housing market. But one immediate effect has been a fall in interest rates, which if sustained may give prices some support over the remainder of the year.

30 November 2021

US Housing Market Update

Why are pending and existing home sales diverging?

An increase in the quality of mortgage borrowers, and record low inventory, are boosting the mortgage closing rate and leading to an increase in the share of pending home sales converted into existing home sales. Those factors are not set to go into reverse anytime soon, so we don’t think existing sales will snap back to match the pending sales index over the next few months.

29 November 2021

More from Andrew Burrell

UK Commercial Property Chart Book

Signs are positive but headwinds remain

Capital growth was solid in April at 0.5% m/m, although that reflected a slight reduction from the rate seen in March. Looking ahead, we expect the recovery in economic activity to continue which will support demand for commercial property. However, structural headwinds remain in the office and retail sectors, so any recovery is likely to be slow.

28 May 2021

Non-Euro European Commercial Property Chart Book

Scandinavia & Switzerland: Upside risk to industrials

Capital value growth improved in Scandinavia and Switzerland in Q1, helped by the easing of virus restrictions and by the improvement in economic activity towards the end of the quarter. The uptick in the pace of Scandinavian industrial capital value growth in particular poses upside risk to our end-year forecast. Looking ahead, the faster pace of vaccination and falls in new virus cases point to a further rebound in economic activity. This will support the property recovery, although the structural headwinds from more online spending and firms adjusting their office space will weigh on retail and office performance.

28 May 2021

Non-Euro European Commercial Property Chart Book

Emerging Europe: Re-opening won’t stop values falling

The fall in all-property rents, dragged down by office and retail sectors, meant that annual capital value growth remained in negative territory in Q1, despite the surprise fall in yields. Looking ahead, while the faster pace of the vaccination rollout and fall in new virus cases should pave the way for a swift rebound in economic activity, the recovery in property values is likely to prove much slower. Indeed, despite the improved occupier outlook, structural headwinds from more online shopping and remote working will continue to weigh on the office and retail sector. In turn, we expect prime rents in these sectors to extend their declines this year, outweighing any rental gain in the industrial sector. And we don’t expect the dip in yields in Q1 to be sustained, as higher retail yields will push up all-property yields. As a result, all-property capital values are set to drop again this year.

26 May 2021
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