US Commercial Property
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Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q2 2021)

With cities reopening apartment demand will see a substantial rise this year, boosted by the arrival of households who delayed a move last year. Vacancy rates will fall back in all six major cities covered in this Outlook with those hit hardest during the pandemic, NYC and D.C., enjoying the most vigorous recovery in demand as tenants return. Strong prospects for NOI growth mean yields will either edge back or hold steady this year, driving substantial capital growth in all the cities. Beyond that, a gradual rise in yields and shift to larger apartments will weigh on returns. But even San Francisco, which will suffer from its high concentration of tech workers, should see total average returns of around 5.0% p.a. from 2021-25. At the other end of the spectrum, D.C. will outperform with average total returns of 8.5% p.a.
Matthew Pointon Senior Property Economist
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