Long Run Returns Monitor (Sep.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 27th September 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.
Oliver Allen Markets Economist
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Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 23rd November 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

25 November 2021

Long Run Update

COP26 a small step forward but much left to do

COP26 has progressed efforts to fight climate change, but there is still a significant gap between pledges and actual policies. Unless action ramps up this decade, countries may face a choice between accepting the costs of greater global warming or a rapid, and potentially disorderly, transition to a greener economy.

16 November 2021

Long Run Update

COP26 unlikely to alter economic outlook

The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, has the potential to be an important milestone but it is just one step along the path required to limit global warming. Accordingly, it will not on its own stop climate change from clouding the long-run economic outlook for many emerging markets in particular.

2 November 2021

More from Oliver Allen

Capital Daily

Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence

The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical relationship between the two asset classes will reassert itself, albeit with lower metals prices coinciding with MSCI’s index for Latin America falling short of its other regional indices.

17 September 2021

Asset Allocation Update

Putting risky asset valuations into context

This Update compares the valuations of the twelve different “risky” asset classes that we cover on our Asset Allocation service, both relative to one another and to the yields of “safe” assets, as well as explaining how those valuations inform our long-term returns forecasts.

13 September 2021

Capital Daily

What to make of the US stock market’s relative valuation?

The high valuations of US equities relative to those elsewhere are, in our view, another reason to think they will lag their peers in the rest of the world over the coming years. What next for the ECB? We’re hosting a post-mortem after Thursday’s Governing Council meeting at 1100 ET to discuss its decision and our views on the euro-zone’s economic and inflation outlook. Register here.

8 September 2021
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