Unpicking Sweden’s labour data; DNB to cut again

The larger-than-expected increase in Swedish unemployment in July was not as bad as it first appeared given that it mainly reflected fewer summer jobs this year. While Sweden has not been immune from Covid, despite its light-touch lockdown, we expect it to be the best of a very bad bunch in Europe this year. Next week, we expect July surveys from Sweden and Switzerland to show that economic conditions continued to improve at the start of Q3.
David Oxley Senior Europe Economist
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More from Nordic & Swiss

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Supply issues biting in Sweden; e-krona has a logo!

We assume that Swedish output recovered about two thirds of August’s precipitous plunge in September, and that preliminary Q3 GDP data due for release next week will show that the economy grew by 0.7% q/q in the quarter. But the risks lie to the downside. Meanwhile, following the weakness of the euro-zone PMIs in October and amid growing signs of supply shortages biting, the releases of the ETI from Sweden and the KOF from Switzerland are likely to show that manufacturing output weakened at the start of Q4.

22 October 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook

Well placed to navigate choppy waters

As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most exposed; the impressive rebound there looks to have peaked in July and momentum will fade in H2 2021.

20 October 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Few signs of inflation in Scandinavia

While global financial markets are obsessing over the possible rebirth of inflation, there are precious few signs that it is about to take off in Scandinavia. The increases in headline inflation for September in Norway and Sweden were due to higher energy inflation. This should drop sharply next year as the supply of renewable electricity rebounds. Meanwhile, the US Treasury is due to publish its latest report on “currency manipulators” in the coming week or so but Switzerland should again get a free pass.

15 October 2021

More from David Oxley

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway GDP (May) & Sweden GDP Indicator (May)

The larger-than-expected rise in mainland Norwegian GDP in May indicates that the economy is back in business following the lifting of restrictions, and it is likely to have regained its pre-virus level in June.

7 July 2021

Global Economics Focus

The CBDCs are coming

We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital currencies will be purposely designed not to shake up the status quo. But once established they would offer powerful new policy tools. It would be naïve to think that sooner or later central banks won’t consider using them.

6 July 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear)

The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass muster in the Riksdag and so there is a good chance that Mr Löfven will return in the same role before long. Next week, we expect monthly GDP data from Norway to show that mainland activity gathered pace in May, and that core inflation remained below the Norges Bank’s target in June.

2 July 2021
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