Resource-poor countries most at risk from a global crisis

The global economic crisis will affect the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through a deterioration in world trade, falls in commodity prices and a drop in capital inflows. We expect that GDP growth in most MENA countries will slow next year. However, the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States’ close links to Asia and healthy balance sheets should help to counteract the drop in hydrocarbon revenues next year. Meanwhile, the near term economic prospects for the rest of the MENA countries are poor.