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Retail Sales (May)

The solid rise in retail sales values in May suggests that consumption growth will be quite strong in the second quarter and we think that it will continue to expand at a rapid rate in the third quarter.
Darren Aw Asia Economist
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More from Japan

Japan Economics Weekly

Recovery will continue to disappoint

The slump in industrial output and the stagnation in real retail sales in May has prompted us to lower our estimate of Q2 GDP growth. While the easing of the lockdown in Shanghai will contribute to a rebound in motor vehicle output over coming months, the bigger picture is that supply shortages remain intense. And with external demand softening, Japan’s economy won’t recover as rapidly this year as most anticipate.

1 July 2022

Japan Data Response

Tankan (Q2), Labour Market (May) & Tokyo CPI (Jun.)

Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is benefitting from the easing of virus restrictions, the outlook for the manufacturing sector is worsening. Meanwhile, the labour market didn’t tighten any further in May and inflation edged down in Tokyo in June, but we still expect the unemployment rate to fall further and underlying inflation to creep higher over coming months.

1 July 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Industrial Production (May 2022)

The plunge in industrial output in May suggests that Japan’s recovery is disappointing yet again. The upshot is that it will take until the second half of the year for GDP to surpass its pre-virus level. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

30 June 2022

More from Darren Aw

India Economics Update

External demand to support economy in Q2

India’s goods trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in May as exports held up much better than imports. Strong external demand will help to offset some of the damage to domestic demand caused by the virus surge and ramping up of containment measures this quarter.

16 June 2021

India Data Response

Consumer Prices (May)

India’s consumer price inflation jumped to a six-month high in May on the back of an unexpected surge in core inflation, which we suspect is a result of rising commodity prices now seeping into retail prices. But that should reverse soon enough and in turn pull the headline rate down over the coming months.

14 June 2021

India Data Response

Wholesale Prices (May)

Wholesale price inflation surged to a three-decade high in May on the back of the sharp rise in global commodity prices and will be a concern for policymakers. However, there are reasons to think that WPI inflation has almost peaked, and the weakness of domestic demand means it will be difficult for firms to pass on price increases to consumers.

14 June 2021
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