My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.)

November’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) points to a slight rebound in consumer spending last month. However, the deterioration in manufacturing and employment conditions underline that the economy will remain weak over the coming months.
Tom Learmouth Japan Economist
Continue reading

More from Japan

Japan Economics Weekly

Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak

Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida said that monetary tightening would do more harm than good. Even more welcome for the BoJ, pressure emanating from the bond market has dropped back too. It had to buy less than a tenth as many JGBs this week as last. Some might feel that this reduces the need to shore up the policy framework. But a respite provides a window in which to make it more resilient.
Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Consumer Prices (May 2022)

While inflation didn’t rise any further in May, it will remain above the BoJ’s 2% target until early-2023, while underlying inflation will approach 2%. However, the Bank won’t respond with tighter policy. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Jun. 2022)

The PMIs suggest that supply shortages are still holding back manufacturing output and adding to price pressures. On a more upbeat note, the surveys also point to a strong pick-up in consumption as the economy rebounds from the Omicron wave and international tourists return. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

23 June 2022

More from Tom Learmouth

Japan Data Response

Japan Trade (May 2021) & Machinery Orders (Apr.)

Despite the spectacular y/y growth rates in May, the rebound in exports is showing signs of slowing. Indeed, we doubt external demand will provide much of a tailwind to growth over the coming months as global consumer goods demand weakens in the wake of vaccine rollouts. Meanwhile, the muted rise in machinery orders in April supports our view that business investment will have trodden water this quarter.

16 June 2021

Japan Economics Weekly

Vaccines for all by November, ¥1000 minimum wage

The revised Q1 GDP figures and April wage data released this week suggest the economy was a little more resilient than first appeared in the early part of this year. And the economy is looking increasingly well set for a strong rebound in the second half of the year. Daily COVID cases and the number of patients in hospital have continued to plunge. With 98% of Japan’s municipalities expecting to be able to meet the government’s target of finishing vaccinations for the over-65s by end-July, the risk of the healthcare system being stretched to breaking point again is diminishing. The only remaining major downside risk now is the prospect of a more infectious variant – such as that first found in India – taking hold rapidly soon.

11 June 2021

Bank of Japan Watch

Asset purchases to remain low but rates on hold

At its June meeting we think the Bank of Japan may extend the deadline on its emergency lending facility from September to December. Beyond that point, it should further taper its purchases of short-dated debt as it digs in for a prolonged hold.

11 June 2021
↑ Back to top