Skip to main content

Vaccine bounce not too far away

Japan’s now fast-moving vaccine rollout is set to gather more speed. PM Suga’s one-million-a-day goal could be hit on a 7-day average basis as soon as tomorrow. 18-to-64-year-olds have from today been able to fill vacant slots at large-scale vaccination centres. And workplace vaccinations are due to begin on Monday. Admittedly, the official figures on vaccine doses lag the announced injection numbers. But the latter are probably more up-to-date measure: additional doses are added retrospectively to the official figures as they are confirmed. The acceleration in jabs bolsters our view that the economy is set for a strong rebound later in the year. Some media reports suggest that the government may have Tokyo under a quasi-state of emergency until the Olympics finish in early August. But we were already expecting activity to remain subdued early in Q3 as local authorities are reluctant to rapidly lift restrictions while vaccine coverage is still low and the threat from the Delta variant remains. We think the vaccine-led rebound will accelerate around the middle of Q3 and continue through Q4 as the economy gets back to full health.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services


Get access