Commodity prices and global equity markets

We think the prices of most commodities will fall over the next couple of years, and that this will prove to be a headwind for many countries’ stock markets. But the strength of that headwind will vary significantly, in our view, even among the most commodity-intensive economies.
Thomas Mathews Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Global Markets

EM Markets Chart Book

Contagion from Turkey’s crisis likely to remain limited

Spillovers to other emerging markets from Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis have been limited so far and we think this will remain the case even if Turkey’s financial markets remain under pressure.

24 November 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

We think US inflation compensation will rise further

US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one of the reasons why we forecast the yields of long-dated US Treasuries to rise over the next two years.

19 November 2021

Global Markets Update

We now expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to widen a bit

We now think that, rather than remaining broadly stable, the spreads of euro-zone “peripheral” bonds will widen somewhat over the next two years as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy. That said, we still expect spreads to remain low by historical standards.

17 November 2021

More from Thomas Mathews

Capital Daily

Supply shortages, monetary policy and stock/bond correlations

Although we expect bond yields to rise further, we don’t think that would necessarily coincide with the sort of sharp falls in equity prices we saw earlier this week.

29 September 2021

Global Markets Update

We don’t think tapering is a big threat to equities

We doubt ‘tapering’ of the Fed’s asset purchases over the next year or so would weigh heavily on the US stock market, and forecast that it will make small gains over the next couple of years.

29 September 2021

Capital Daily

The divergence between the FOMC and financial markets

Judging by the reaction in bond markets to yesterday’s Fed announcement, investors are sceptical the central bank will have to hike rates by as much as it is signalling it will. But if, as we expect, inflationary pressures prove more sustained than investors think, long-term Treasury yields may ultimately rise.

23 September 2021
↑ Back to top