Lessons from Q2 and the recovery so far

Data for Q2 revealed widespread drops in GDP, but the extent of the damage varied markedly depending on the length and severity of lockdowns. Recoveries since then have followed the same pattern. Looking ahead, Asian economies including China and Korea should continue to outperform given their success containing the virus. But uncontrolled outbreaks in India and Latin America will see them lag behind.
Jennifer McKeown Head of Global Economics Service
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Global Economics Update

Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande

If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial dislocation within China or a property-led slump in China’s economy. The latter is probably the bigger risk for the global recovery. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global Economics Update to clients of our Emerging Markets Service.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Surge in gas prices adds to near term price pressure

In this Update, we answer six key questions about the surge in natural gas prices. The key point is that it will keep inflation in DMs and many EMs above central bank targets for a few months longer than we had previously assumed. Governments are already preparing to limit the economic damage and central banks are likely to look through this temporary spike in inflation. But this comes at a time when a host of shortages are already pushing up prices and adds to the upside risks to our inflation and interest rate forecasts.

21 September 2021

Global Economics Chart Book

Global recovery slowing down a gear

There have been growing signs of a slowdown in the pace of the global recovery in recent months. World industrial production fell in July and retail sales declined in almost all major economies, while the business surveys suggest that activity softened again in August. To some extent, this moderation in growth has been benign, reflecting a natural normalisation of activity as the effects of past stimulus fade and output approaches or exceeds pre-virus levels. However, high frequency data on activities such as restaurant dining show that consumer caution has returned in some places as virus cases have risen again. What’s more, the surveys offer evidence that widespread shortages of goods and labour are limiting growth. With the notable exception of the euro-zone, we think that the rapid phase of the recovery is already in the rear-view mirror for the world’s major economies.

20 September 2021

More from Jennifer McKeown

Global Economics Update

PMIs show industrial revival boosting prices further

The dip in the global manufacturing PMI in June left it at a very high level, with the advanced economies leading a continued strong recovery in output. But industrial recoveries seem to have lost pace in Asia, reflecting a slowdown in demand for imports including electronics as advanced economies reopen. Meanwhile, supply constraints have continued to build and output prices are rising fast around the world.

1 July 2021

Global Central Bank Watch

How will central banks respond to the inflation threat?

The rise in inflation and the question of how central banks will respond has dominated headlines over recent weeks. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we set out a framework for thinking about how the inflation threat and other factors will determine the path of policy in the world’s major advanced and emerging economies in the months ahead. We also highlight some key dates and events to watch for more information about the inflation outlook and how central banks’ reaction functions are evolving.

30 June 2021

Global Economics Update

COVID Recovery Monitor

Our Mobility Trackers show that global economic activity is benefitting from the removal of restrictions in advanced economies. Good progress with vaccinations suggests that this trend should continue, albeit with risks around new variants. The story is less positive for EMs, where vaccination has typically been slow. But there are hopeful signs that China could soon be exporting vaccines on a very large scale.

17 June 2021
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