My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

What can we learn from past pandemics?

The macroeconomic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic are likely to be very different from those of previous pandemics, largely because of the unprecedented response by governments and central banks. The most important lesson from history is that seismic shocks tend to accelerate changes to economic structures, institutions and behaviours that were already underway. This implies that the current pandemic could leave a legacy that touches on everything from globalisation to the future of work.
Gabriella Dickens Assistant Economist
Continue reading

More from Global Economics

Global Central Bank Watch

Will frontloading make hard landings less likely?

The pace of policy tightening has increased still further, with many central bankers arguing that rate hikes must be “frontloaded” to tackle inflation risks quickly. In the current environment, this probably does offer the best chance of avoiding a future hard landing for most economies. And given evidence so far that activity is slowing but not slumping as policy tightens, aggressive rate hikes seem set to continue in the near term. But while this policy may reduce the threat from inflation in the medium term, it carries big economic risks in the near term, particularly where household debt is high and house prices are elevated.

4 August 2022

Global Economics Update

PMIs: Weak industrial activity taking pressure off supply

July’s fall in the global manufacturing PMI supported other evidence that the industrial sector is in or close to recession and the forward-looking indicators point to further weakness to come. At least the weakness of demand has caused backlogs of work to ease and suppliers’ delivery times to improve, which should ultimately take some of the pressure off inflation.

1 August 2022

Global Economics Update

Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook

We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions that we did not have time to answer during the event.

28 July 2022

More from Gabriella Dickens

Global Economics Update

PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices

The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile, goods shortages are exerting upward pressure on prices, and there are some signs that they are also weighing on output, particularly in the euro-zone.

1 June 2021

Global Trade Monitor

Higher costs and delays are not damaging demand

The further rise in real trade in March suggests that external demand continued to recover, even as capacity constraints related to shipping were intensifying. And while shipping costs have risen and delays worsened in the weeks since these data were recorded, so far at least, there is little evidence that these factors are weighing on external demand.

26 May 2021

Global Economics Update

PMIs: supply is struggling to keep up with demand

The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well as exerting upward pressure on prices, there are some tentative signs that supply shortages are starting to weigh on manufacturing output, particularly in the US and the euro-zone.

21 May 2021
↑ Back to top