Rising interest rates to speed up property correction

The weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates are expected to weigh on property performance. With valuations under increasing pressure from sharply rising bond yields, we think that property yields will reach their troughs this year and rise by a cumulative 35bps at the all-property level over the following few years. Rental growth is unlikely to be able to provide much offset to prevent falls in capital values in 2023-24, with structural changes dragging on the retail and office sectors. This will leave annual total returns languishing in low single digits on average over the forecast. Beyond 2022, we think retail will overtake industrial as the best performing sector, while offices are expected to underperform.