James McMorrow

James McMorrow joined Capital Economics as a Property Economist in June 2022 and currently works on our Europe Commercial Property service. Prior to joining Capital Economics, he worked as an Assistant Economist at the Department for Transport in its Regions and Cities and Rail Analysis divisions. James holds a BSc in Economics and Accounting from Queen’s University Belfast and an MSc in Economics from Trinity College Dublin.

Europe Commercial Property Update

Answering questions from our recent Drop-In

This week we held a Drop-In on the outlook for euro-zone commercial property. Clients can access a recording here. This Update provides answers to the most interesting questions that emerged from the...

11th April 2024 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

CEE industrial rents to trail the rest of Europe

The CEE industrial market cooled in 2023 as economic activity stagnated. This year will herald an economic recovery but we don’t think it will be stop the rent growth slowdown. Demand is anticipated...

4th April 2024 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2

Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached...

21st March 2024 31 mins read

Event

Property Drop-In: Euro-zone commercial property outlook

10th April 2024, 10:00AM BST

Will 2024 mark the end of the downturn in the European commercial real estate market? And how strong will the recovery be when it comes? Our European commercial property team held a 20-minute…

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rents rising but a retail renaissance in 2024 is unlikely

The revival of prime retail rental growth in 2023 ended a three-year rental decline for the sector. This likely marks the end of retail’s rental woes and we have nudged up our prime rent forecast for...

14th March 2024 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Germany not the only source of debt distress in Europe

Recent media attention has focused on the downturn in Germany and the travails of its lenders exposed to the crash in property values both domestically and in the US. While the focus on Europe’s...

1st March 2024 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024)

Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital...

23rd February 2024 0 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Answering questions from our debt distress Drop-In

This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page. This Update...

16th February 2024 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Stronger supply cuts Madrid office outperformance

A robust labour market will support Spanish office occupier demand to a greater extent than elsewhere in the euro-zone in the next few years. As a result, we think prime office rent growth will...

12th February 2024 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Focus

How big a threat is debt distress in Europe?

Falling interest rates will not prevent a rise in refinancing distress in Europe in the coming years – debt funding gaps will be large and forced selling will increase. However, financing pressures...

7th February 2024 20 mins read

Event

Property Drop-In: Real estate distress – who’s vulnerable and where?

14th February 2024, 3:00PM GMT

While growing signs of distress in US commercial real estate debt have markets on edge, there’s been relative quiet on the other side of the Atlantic. Are European and UK markets insulated from the...

Europe Commercial Property Update

Latest RICS survey offers little sign of recovery

The latest RICS survey offered tentative signs that we could be past the worst of the property downturn in Europe, as both occupier and investment demand balances picked up slightly. However, the big...

25th January 2024 3 mins read

Rate cut hopes fuel bets real estate crisis is easing

Euro zone real estate prices should turn positive in 2025, Capital Economics forecasts, while the U.S. will lag substantially with a 10% drop this year and no recovery until 2026, thanks to its...

25th January 2024 Reuters

Europe Commercial Property Update

Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on

Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment...

17th January 2024 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

No sign of a flight to quality in office pricing, yet

Much has been talked about a ‘flight to quality’ in the office sector given the structural shift to hybrid working. However, while there is evidence of this in relative rental performance, a look at...

11th January 2024 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Italy retail rent growth to slow, but continues to lead

The surge in Italian prime retail rents over the past year is likely to give way in 2024, as inflation falls back and consumer spending stagnates. But the strong fundamentals that have supported this...

10th January 2024 3 mins read