Does globalisation have a future?

Globalisation has peaked, with any further major integration unlikely. In fact, a policy-driven period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely.
Vicky Redwood Senior Economic Adviser
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Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

Turkey and frontiers in the firing line

The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with large falls in the lira than they were during the 2018 crisis. Elsewhere in the emerging world, sovereign vulnerabilities look particularly acute in a handful of frontier markets, while longer-term banking sector risks loom in the UAE, India and Russia.

7 December 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat

November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s still too early to tell, the Omicron variant could exacerbate existing strains. The upshot is that supply constraints are likely to continue to weigh on industry for some time yet.

1 December 2021

Emerging Markets Trade Monitor

The impact of Omicron on EM trade

If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil producers are likely to see external positions deteriorate if the plunge in prices is sustained. But arguably the most clear point for now is that the new variant will lead to renewed slumps in tourism, adding to balance of payments risks in the likes of Tunisia and Sri Lanka.

30 November 2021

More from Vicky Redwood

Global Economics Update

Is the rise in house prices becoming a concern?

It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the pre-2007 housing boom, meaning that we do not seem to be heading for a repeat of the housing-driven financial crisis of 2007/08. Nonetheless, there are pockets of concern, and we would get more worried if it looked like interest rates were about to rise sharply.

28 September 2021

CE Spotlight

Will a post-pandemic surge in demand fuel inflation?

Demand was always likely to rebound strongly as economies re-opened and confidence returned. Beyond this, though, there are reasons to think that we could now be in for a period of sustained strong aggregate demand in developed economies. Initially, this will be soaked up by spare capacity. But demand might stay strong even once economies return to full employment, potentially fueling inflation. This risk looks highest in countries which have seen the biggest policy stimulus and the smallest amount of pandemic-related economic damage, with the US most obviously fitting the bill.

16 September 2021

Long Run Update

The difficulties of capturing productivity improvements

Recent methodological changes by the UK statistics body highlight the difficulties of capturing productivity improvements in official economic data. Although the revisions will make only a small improvement to the UK’s productivity picture, they support our optimism that there are productivity gains yet to be measured or realised from the technological developments of recent years.

14 July 2021
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