Q3 GDP data released earlier this month painted a mixed picture. Although much of the region has now returned to positive quarterly growth, this has been was driven by a variety of temporary factors including Western European car-scrapping schemes and fiscal stimulus measures. Meanwhile, a number of economies – notably Hungary and Bulgaria - remain rooted in recession. The bigger picture is that while the worst of the crisis in Emerging Europe is over, a combination of still-weak banking sectors, a planned tightening of fiscal policy and a sluggish recovery in export markets means that for much of the region the near-term outlook remains grim. While substantial base effects could result in impressive-looking economic growth rates in some countries next year, in several cases it will take more than five years for GDP to return to pre-crisis levels.
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