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Markets mispricing the chance of rate hikes in Malaysia

The dovish tone of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) as it left rates on hold today only strengthens our non-consensus view that policy will be left on hold this year to support the recovery. In contrast, the analyst consensus is for 50bps of tightening, while financial markets are pricing in two to three 25bp hikes. Drop-In: Turkey’s new economic policy = old problems (Thurs 20th Jan, 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT). William Jackson and Jason Tuvey discuss the economic problems associated with the lira’s collapse, including the government’s policy response. Register here.
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Pakistan: Further tightening needed, as IMF talks begin

High inflation and the fall in the currency were the two key factors behind the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to raise interest rates by a further 150bp today. More tightening looks inevitable, and much will depend on whether the government can agree terms with the IMF over the resumption of its US$6bn loan programme. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

23 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Asia late to tightening but won’t have to go far

Central banks in India, the Philippines and Malaysia have all raised interest rates for the first time this cycle in recent weeks, and we expect further hikes next week in Indonesia, Korea and Pakistan. But with inflation set to fall back in the second half of the year and growth likely to weaken, tightening cycles are unlikely to be aggressive. Our forecasts are generally more dovish than the consensus.
Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

20 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: central bank will tighten gradually

The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) started raising interest rates today, but with inflation set to slow later in the year and the economic recovery likely to weaken, the tightening cycle is set to be gradual and relatively short. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

19 May 2022

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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s hike is too little too late

The 50bp rate hike made by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) today – after it stood pat for two meetings as foreign currency dried up and inflation soared – is likely to prove too little too late. Drop-In: Turkey’s new economic policy = old problems (Thurs 20th Jan, 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT). William Jackson and Jason Tuvey discuss the economic problems associated with the lira’s collapse, including the government’s policy response. Register here.

20 January 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Korean labour market not as healthy as it looks

At face value, the Korean labour market figures for December paint an encouraging picture, with total employment rising to a new record high. However, a detailed examination of data reveals just how dependent the labour market has become on government support, which may not be sustained if the opposition PPP win March’s presidential election.

14 January 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea turning even more hawkish

The Bank of Korea (BoK) is far from done, after making its first back-to-back rate hike since 2007 today. We now expect a total of four 25bp hikes in 2022, taking the policy rate to 2.00%.

14 January 2022
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