Emerging Asia Economics

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Vietnam joins the region’s tightening cycle

Despite low inflation, Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) joined the region’s tightening cycle on Thursday, when it raised rates by 100bp. Further hikes are likely as the SBV looks to support the dong...

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Taiwan: gradual tightening cycle ahead

Taiwan’s central bank today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bp (to 1.625%), and with inflation easing and growth set to struggle, further tightening is likely to be gradual.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

New policy rate forecasts for Indonesia

Bank Indonesia (BI) today raised interest rates by a further 50bp (to 4.25%) and signalled that more tightening was likely as it aims to support the currency and clamp down on rising inflation. We are...

Emerging Asia Economics Rapid Response

Taiwan Policy Rate (September 2022)

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI

Manufacturing PMIs across Asia fell back again in August, with the readings for Taiwan and Korea especially weak. We are not expecting any improvement over the coming months, with weaker global demand...

Emerging Asia Data Response

Thailand GDP (Q2)

Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year on the back of a strong reopening boost. Although higher commodity prices will drag on the recovery, with the tourism sector...

Emerging Asia Data Response

Malaysia GDP (Q2)

GDP growth in Malaysia edged down in q/q terms last quarter, and we expect a further slowdown over the coming quarters as commodity prices drop back and the boost from reopening fades.

Emerging Asia Data Response

Philippines GDP (Q2)

Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand...

Emerging Asia Chart Book

Central banks remain in hawkish mode, for now

Monetary policy makers across Emerging Asia remain in hawkish mode – every central bank in the region with the exceptions of China and Vietnam has now raised interest rates this year – and further...

Emerging Asia Chart Book

Growth to slow in the second half of the year

GDP figures for Korea released earlier today showed economic growth accelerated in the second quarter thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption as the economy enjoyed a reopening bounce. This...

Emerging Asia Chart Book

Thai economy to receive tourism boost

After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level...

Emerging Asia Chart Book

Pakistan edges closer to IMF deal

Talks between Pakistan and the IMF ended last week without agreement, but the subsequent decision by the government to cut back fuel subsidies has cleared one of the major hurdles towards a deal being...

Emerging Asia Economic Outlook

Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow

Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation...

Emerging Asia Economic Outlook

New headwinds emerge

Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be...

Emerging Asia Economic Outlook

Central banks in no hurry to tighten

Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to...

Emerging Asia Economic Outlook

Interest rates and inflation to remain low

Growth in China will weaken further over the coming year as a downturn deepens in industry and construction. The outlook for the rest of the region is improving. We expect many economies to rebound...

Emerging Asia Economics

The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan

China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario...

Emerging Asia Economics Focus

Bank of Korea to cut rates next year as headwinds mount

The Bank of Korea (BoK) is almost certain to hike interest rates further this year, but with financial risks receding, economic growth likely to slow and inflation set to fall back to target by early...

Emerging Asia Economics Focus

Presidential election a watershed moment for Korea

Korea’s presidential election on 9th March will have major implications for the country’s economic future. A pledge by the ruling DPK’s candidate to introduce a universal basic income could bring some...

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

Why is inflation different in Asia?

Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the...

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Stronger dollar to keep policymakers in tightening mode

A strong US dollar is a threat to countries with lots of foreign currency debt and/or inflation problems, and is putting pressure on central banks across the region to raise interest rates more...

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Taiwan: gradual tightening cycle ahead

Taiwan’s central bank today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bp (to 1.625%), and with inflation easing and growth set to struggle, further tightening is likely to be gradual.

Emerging Asia Economics Update

New policy rate forecasts for Indonesia

Bank Indonesia (BI) today raised interest rates by a further 50bp (to 4.25%) and signalled that more tightening was likely as it aims to support the currency and clamp down on rising inflation. We are...

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: further hikes in the near term

The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today raised its main policy rate by another 50bp (to 4.25%), and signalled that more hikes were likely in the near term. While further tightening is likely...

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Vietnam joins the region’s tightening cycle

Despite low inflation, Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) joined the region’s tightening cycle on Thursday, when it raised rates by 100bp. Further hikes are likely as the SBV looks to support the dong...

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Worries over weak won, slow recovery in Sri Lanka

The continued weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen 15% against the US dollar since the start of the year, has become a growing concern for policymakers and is another reason to think the...

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

New Indonesia forecasts, tourism to support Thai baht

We are adjusting our inflation and policy rate forecasts for Indonesia in response to the recent fuel price hikes. Meanwhile, the recovery in Thailand’s tourism sector is gathering pace. This should...