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The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan

China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario that upset the existing cross-Strait balance would come with a high risk of further escalation that would lead to a hard decoupling of China from the West. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Asia Economics Focus to clients of our China Service.

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