Our Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The trade deals agreed so far suggest that most countries in Asia will eventually end up facing tariffs of around 15-25% on their exports to the US (China is the key exception), which is slightly higher than our previous assumption. However, this will be manageable for most economies, especially since the region should continue to benefit from trade diversion, as US firms shift away from China. Looking beyond the trade war, with growth set to struggle in the second half of the year and inflation low, further interest rate cuts are likely across much of the region. Taiwan and India, where rates will probably stay on hold through year-end, are the exceptions.
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