2022 will be a year of slower growth in China as the property and export sectors weaken and structural constraints loom larger. A desire to keep a grip on credit risks will inhibit the policy response to the slowdown. Xi Jinping’s decision not to step aside when his second term as Party leader ends will cement China’s shift to a more autocratic style of policymaking, with productivity growth likely to decelerate further as a result. And 2022 may be the year in which China’s population starts to go into decline.
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