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What to expect in 2021

China’s rebound from the COVID-19 shock has been swifter and stronger than most anticipated. We think its economy will continue to surprise to the upside for a while, paving the way for PBOC rate hikes and further renminbi appreciation. But the property sector and credit markets present downside risks and even if these threats stay dormant, the shine from stimulus will start to wear off by the end of 2021.

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