My subscription
My Subscription All Publications

Bond-market sell-off unlikely to gather more momentum

The yields of most 10-year developed market government bonds have fallen back a bit today. But the bigger picture is that they have risen over the past month, continuing an upward trend that started in September, as investors have progressively become less dovish on the prospects for monetary policy in most economies. Looking ahead, we generally don’t expect big moves in yields either directions. But we do expect to see some variation in performance given the outlook for monetary policy.
Simona Gambarini Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Capital Daily

Capital Daily

We doubt China’s stock market will go from strength to strength

We don’t think that the recent rally in China’s stock market sets the stage for extensive gains over the new few years.

27 June 2022

Capital Daily

A stock market rebound makes little sense if a recession is nigh

The proximate cause of this week’s tentative rebound in the S&P 500 appears to have been a pull-back in Treasury yields. Yet their retreat has reflected concerns that the Fed will drive the economy into the ground in an effort to bring down inflation. Accordingly, it’s hard to envisage the stock market recovering much more ground if those worries continue to grow.

24 June 2022

Capital Daily

We expect long-dated Treasury yields to resume their rise

While the yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen sharply in recent days, we doubt it has already passed its peak.

23 June 2022

More from Simona Gambarini

EM Markets Chart Book

We think EM equities will rise, not shine

We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM) equities recently and we doubt they will perform much better than them in the coming year and a half.

27 May 2021

Capital Daily

We think 10-year yields will rise gradually in most cases

While the RBNZ is gearing up to hiking rates next year, we think that most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until early 2023 at the earliest. This feeds into our forecast that the yields of 10-year DM government bonds will rise only gradually, in most cases, over the next couple of years.

26 May 2021

Capital Daily

PMIs, bond yields & the euro

The latest flash PMIs reinforce our view that the economy will continue to grow at a faster pace in the US than in the euro-zone in the next few years. This feeds into our forecast that long-dated yields will rise more rapidly in the former than in the latter and that the euro will fall back against the US dollar.

21 May 2021
↑ Back to top