Global Markets Update We expect gradual increases in 10-year DM bond yields We think most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until at least early 2023. Even so, we expect the yields of 10-year DM... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM equities will rise, not shine We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM)... 27th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think 10-year yields will rise gradually in most cases While the RBNZ is gearing up to hiking rates next year, we think that most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until early 2023... 26th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily PMIs, bond yields & the euro The latest flash PMIs reinforce our view that the economy will continue to grow at a faster pace in the US than in the euro-zone in the next few years. This feeds into our forecast that long-dated... 21st May 2021 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We doubt inflation will send the equity rally into reverse While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. 20th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads may fall a little further While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think that the 10-year Gilt yield will rise further Despite the Bank of England becoming a bit more hawkish, we think that rates will remain on hold for a long time. As a result, inflation will rise above the 2% target for a prolonged period, which... 6th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that euro-zone yields will rise only gradually Despite tentative signs of improvement in the euro-zone economy recently and our expectation that long-term US Treasury yields will rise significantly over the next couple of years, we forecast that... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect higher yields to dampen the rally in “risky” assets We continue to forecast that a strong recovery in the global economy and ongoing policy support will drive further increases in developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) equities over the next... 30th April 2021 · 30 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations may not support LatAm equities While the valuation of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index is now low both by past standards and on a relative basis, we think that further gains in the index will be driven mostly by... 22nd April 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think that euro-zone yields will continue to rise gradually The ECB’s monetary policy decision and press conference today supports our view that the yields of 10-year euro-zone government bonds will rise gradually over the coming years as economic conditions... 22nd April 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Limited scope for valuations to push risky assets higher In our view, changes to the economic and policy outlook since the pandemic mean that corporate credit spreads in the US may remain lower than in their recent past for some time. Nonetheless, we see... 15th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Expectations for earnings consistent with rotation resuming soon Although the stock market rotation trade has stalled recently, we think that it will resume before long. 14th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Some market implications of central banks going “green” In recent years, and particularly since the start of the pandemic, the pressure on central banks to address climate change has increased. This Update considers the potential implications for financial... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We forecast higher yields, a stronger $ & gains in equities We now think that 10-year government bond yields in most developed markets (DMs) will rise further. However, we think that they will climb more rapidly in the US than elsewhere in the developed world... 31st March 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy, economic growth and bond yields In our view, as the pandemic eases major central banks will generally take a more cautious approach to tightening monetary policy than they did in the past. This underpins our forecast that the yields... 15th March 2021 · 6 mins read
